VAT Threshold Modeller

The OBR flagged the £90,000 VAT threshold as “anomalously high.” If it drops, businesses just below the current threshold could face significant margin erosion. Model the scenarios.

£20k£80,000£150k
30%
50%

Scenario Comparison

Current threshold: £90,000. Your revenue of £80,000 is below the current threshold.

If threshold drops to

£60,000

You become VAT registered

Yes

VAT liability

£16,000

Margin erosion

-9.5pp

Effective margin

20.5%

If threshold drops to

£70,000

You become VAT registered

Yes

VAT liability

£16,000

Margin erosion

-9.5pp

Effective margin

20.5%

If threshold drops to

£75,000

You become VAT registered

Yes

VAT liability

£16,000

Margin erosion

-9.5pp

Effective margin

20.5%

Decision Window

Status: Consultation stage. No decision has been made. Earliest possible implementation would be April 2027. You have 12-18 months to model scenarios and adjust pricing.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current UK VAT threshold?
The current VAT registration threshold is £90,000 of taxable turnover in a rolling 12-month period (2025/26).
Will the VAT threshold change?
The OBR has flagged the threshold as 'anomalously high' compared to international standards. A reduction to £60,000-£75,000 is under discussion but no decision has been made.
What happens when I register for VAT?
You must charge VAT on your sales (20% standard rate), submit quarterly VAT returns, and can reclaim VAT on business purchases. Your prices may need to increase.